Skip to content

2002 House · CO-7

Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2002-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 44%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.24% · Republican 47.31%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 44 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.240 − 47.310 = -0.070
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-0.070) = -1.930
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.930| = 1.930

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64373, race ID 2796 (538 database).