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2008 House · FL-16

Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2008-10-15 (20 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 29% · Republican 55%

R+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.91% · Republican 60.09%

R+20.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29 − 55 = -26.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.907 − 60.093 = -20.186
  3. Signed miss = -26.00 − (-20.186) = -5.813
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.813| = 5.813

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64374, race ID 4127 (538 database).