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2002 House · CT-5

University of Connecticut · fieldwork ended 2002-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 642 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 53%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.26% · Republican 54.25%

R+11.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 53 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.263 − 54.249 = -10.986
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-10.986) = -6.014
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.014| = 6.014

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64383, race ID 2801 (538 database).