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2006 House · CT-5

University of Connecticut · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 762 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 42%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.46% · Republican 43.54%

D+12.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 42 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.464 − 43.536 = 12.928
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (12.928) = -8.927
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.927| = 8.927

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64386, race ID 3674 (538 database).