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1998 House · CA-36

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 30% · Republican 47%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.57% · Republican 48.89%

R+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30 − 47 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.572 − 48.894 = -2.322
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-2.322) = -14.678
  4. Absolute miss = |-14.678| = 14.678

The poll overstated the Republican by 14.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64398, race ID 1900 (538 database).