1998 House · MA-6
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 31%
D+21.0
The certified result
Democrat 54.55% · Republican 42.38%
D+12.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 31 = 21.00
- Actual margin = 54.555 − 42.377 = 12.178
- Signed miss = 21.00 − (12.178) = 8.822
- Absolute miss = |8.822| = 8.822
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64400, race ID 2035 (538 database).