1998 House · NM-3
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 39%
D+13.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.16% · Republican 43.27%
D+9.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 39 = 13.00
- Actual margin = 53.160 − 43.266 = 9.894
- Signed miss = 13.00 − (9.894) = 3.107
- Absolute miss = |3.107| = 3.107
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64402, race ID 2101 (538 database).