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1998 House · OH-6

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 41%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.96% · Republican 43.04%

D+13.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 41 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.962 − 43.038 = 13.924
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (13.924) = -12.924
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.924| = 12.924

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64403, race ID 2151 (538 database).