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1998 House · WA-1

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.77% · Republican 44.12%

D+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.775 − 44.116 = 5.659
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (5.659) = -5.659
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.659| = 5.659

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.7 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64406, race ID 2260 (538 database).