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2006 House · CT-2

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 47%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.02% · Republican 49.98%

even

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 47 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.017 − 49.983 = 0.034
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (0.034) = -5.034
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.034| = 5.034

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64413, race ID 3671 (538 database).