2006 House · CT-4
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 44%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.58% · Republican 50.96%
R+3.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 47.579 − 50.957 = -3.378
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (-3.378) = 10.378
- Absolute miss = |10.378| = 10.378
The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64413, race ID 3673 (538 database).