2006 House · IN-2
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 39%
D+13.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.98% · Republican 46.02%
D+8.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 39 = 13.00
- Actual margin = 53.977 − 46.023 = 7.954
- Signed miss = 13.00 − (7.954) = 5.046
- Absolute miss = |5.046| = 5.046
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64415, race ID 3738 (538 database).