Skip to content

2006 House · IN-9

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 46%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 45.49%

D+4.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.013 − 45.492 = 4.521
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (4.521) = -2.521
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.521| = 2.521

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64415, race ID 3745 (538 database).