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2006 House · IA-1

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 42%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.10% · Republican 43.25%

D+11.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 42 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.101 − 43.247 = 11.854
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (11.854) = -4.853
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.853| = 4.853

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64416, race ID 3746 (538 database).