2006 House · NM-1
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 44%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.80% · Republican 50.20%
R+0.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 44 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 49.796 − 50.204 = -0.408
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (-0.408) = 9.408
- Absolute miss = |9.408| = 9.408
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64419, race ID 3847 (538 database).