2006 House · NC-11
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 43%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.79% · Republican 46.21%
D+7.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 53.794 − 46.206 = 7.588
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (7.588) = -2.589
- Absolute miss = |-2.589| = 2.589
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64420, race ID 3889 (538 database).