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2006 House · OH-18

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 33%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 62.06% · Republican 37.94%

D+24.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 33 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 62.060 − 37.940 = 24.120
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (24.120) = -4.120
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.120| = 4.120

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64421, race ID 3910 (538 database).