2008 House · TX-7
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2008-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 421 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 48%
R+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.36% · Republican 55.90%
R+13.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 48 = -7.00
- Actual margin = 42.361 − 55.901 = -13.540
- Signed miss = -7.00 − (-13.540) = 6.540
- Absolute miss = |6.540| = 6.540
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64426, race ID 4399 (538 database).