Skip to content

2000 Senate · PA

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 53%

R+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.51% · Republican 52.42%

R+6.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 53 = -22.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.509 − 52.416 = -6.907
  3. Signed miss = -22.00 − (-6.907) = -15.093
  4. Absolute miss = |-15.093| = 15.093

The poll overstated the Republican by 15.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6450, race ID 1706 (538 database).