2000 Governor · WA
Elway Research · fieldwork ended 2000-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 31%
D+25.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.38% · Republican 39.68%
D+18.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 31 = 25.00
- Actual margin = 58.383 − 39.681 = 18.702
- Signed miss = 25.00 − (18.702) = 6.298
- Absolute miss = |6.298| = 6.298
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6451, race ID 1428 (538 database).