2000 President · OH
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-18 (20 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 45%
R+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.44% · Republican 49.99%
R+3.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 45 = -4.00
- Actual margin = 46.440 − 49.986 = -3.546
- Signed miss = -4.00 − (-3.546) = -0.454
- Absolute miss = |-0.454| = 0.454
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6462, race ID 841 (538 database).