2000 Senate · NJ
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2000-10-20 (18 days before the election) · 909 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 41%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.11% · Republican 47.10%
D+3.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 41 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 50.113 − 47.096 = 3.017
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (3.017) = 1.983
- Absolute miss = |1.983| = 1.983
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6464, race ID 1701 (538 database).