2006 House · SD-1
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 66% · Republican 26%
D+40.0
The certified result
Democrat 69.09% · Republican 29.34%
D+39.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 66 − 26 = 40.00
- Actual margin = 69.093 − 29.339 = 39.754
- Signed miss = 40.00 − (39.754) = 0.246
- Absolute miss = |0.246| = 0.246
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64710, race ID 3948 (538 database).