Skip to content

2000 President · MN

St. Cloud State University · fieldwork ended 2000-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 514 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 41%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.91% · Republican 45.50%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 41 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.906 − 45.502 = 2.404
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (2.404) = -5.403
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.403| = 5.403

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6491, race ID 829 (538 database).