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2000 Senate · PA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 592 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 52%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.51% · Republican 52.42%

R+6.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 52 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.509 − 52.416 = -6.907
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-6.907) = -11.093
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.093| = 11.093

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 65009, race ID 1706 (538 database).