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2000 President · CA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 596 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 45%

even

The certified result

Democrat 53.45% · Republican 41.65%

D+11.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 45 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.450 − 41.651 = 11.799
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (11.799) = -11.798
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.798| = 11.798

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.8 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 65022, race ID 810 (538 database).