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2000 President · TN

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 490 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 52%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.28% · Republican 51.15%

R+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 52 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.285 − 51.149 = -3.864
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-3.864) = -3.136
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.136| = 3.136

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 65028, race ID 848 (538 database).