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2000 Senate · WA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 47%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.73% · Republican 48.64%

D+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 47 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.730 − 48.640 = 0.090
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (0.090) = 4.909
  4. Absolute miss = |4.909| = 4.909

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 65029, race ID 1713 (538 database).