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2000 President · WA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 43%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.16% · Republican 44.58%

D+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 43 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.158 − 44.579 = 5.579
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (5.579) = 1.420
  4. Absolute miss = |1.420| = 1.420

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 65029, race ID 853 (538 database).