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2016 President · MN

St. Cloud State University · fieldwork ended 2016-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 709 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 36%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.45% · Republican 44.92%

D+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 36 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.445 − 44.925 = 1.520
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (1.520) = 9.480
  4. Absolute miss = |9.480| = 9.480

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 66558, race ID 625 (538 database).