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2006 House · CT-2

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 50%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.02% · Republican 49.98%

even

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 50 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.017 − 49.983 = 0.034
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (0.034) = -7.034
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.034| = 7.034

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 66734, race ID 3671 (538 database).