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2020 Senate · VA

Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2020-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 1,231 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 43%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.99% · Republican 43.91%

D+12.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 43 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.992 − 43.908 = 12.084
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (12.084) = -1.084
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.084| = 1.084

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71068, race ID 6296 (538 database).