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2020 Senate · CO

Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2020-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 1,013 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 42%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.50% · Republican 44.18%

D+9.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 42 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.499 − 44.178 = 9.321
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (9.321) = 1.679
  4. Absolute miss = |1.679| = 1.679

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71069, race ID 6269 (538 database).