2020 President · NC
Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2020-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 1,211 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 46%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.59% · Republican 49.93%
R+1.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 46 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 48.586 − 49.934 = -1.348
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (-1.348) = 6.348
- Absolute miss = |6.348| = 6.348
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.3 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71070, race ID 6238 (538 database).