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2020 House · FL-15

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2020-10-15 (19 days before the election) · 943 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40.5% · Republican 48.5%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.62% · Republican 55.38%

R+10.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.5 − 48.5 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.615 − 55.385 = -10.770
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-10.770) = 2.770
  4. Absolute miss = |2.770| = 2.770

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71172, race ID 7930 (538 database).