2020 President · MI
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2020-10-14 (20 days before the election) · 1,289 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 43%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%
D+2.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 43 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (2.784) = 8.216
- Absolute miss = |8.216| = 8.216
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71178, race ID 6233 (538 database).