Skip to content

2020 House · PA-8

co/efficient · fieldwork ended 2020-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 615 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 43%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.78% · Republican 48.22%

D+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.777 − 48.223 = 3.554
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (3.554) = 1.445
  4. Absolute miss = |1.445| = 1.445

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71239, race ID 8166 (538 database).