2020 President · MO
Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-14 (20 days before the election) · 1,010 respondents · IVR/Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 51%
R+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.41% · Republican 56.80%
R+15.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 51 = -6.00
- Actual margin = 41.409 − 56.800 = -15.391
- Signed miss = -6.00 − (-15.391) = 9.391
- Absolute miss = |9.391| = 9.391
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71240, race ID 6235 (538 database).