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2020 President · national

TIPP Insights · fieldwork ended 2020-10-16 (18 days before the election) · 949 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49.6% · Republican 44.4%

D+5.2

The certified result

Democrat 51.07% · Republican 46.67%

D+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.6 − 44.4 = 5.20
  2. Actual margin = 51.068 − 46.672 = 4.396
  3. Signed miss = 5.20 − (4.396) = 0.804
  4. Absolute miss = |0.804| = 0.804

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71356, race ID 6210 (538 database).