2020 Senate · MT
RMG Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR/Text
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 49%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.99% · Republican 55.01%
R+10.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 44.988 − 55.012 = -10.024
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (-10.024) = 8.024
- Absolute miss = |8.024| = 8.024
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71363, race ID 6283 (538 database).