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2020 President · WI

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-15 (19 days before the election) · 1,051 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47.6% · Republican 46.3%

D+1.3

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.82%

D+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.6 − 46.3 = 1.30
  2. Actual margin = 49.450 − 48.822 = 0.628
  3. Signed miss = 1.30 − (0.628) = 0.673
  4. Absolute miss = |0.673| = 0.673

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71365, race ID 6259 (538 database).