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2020 President · PA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-14 (20 days before the election) · 1,041 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47.5% · Republican 46.4%

D+1.1

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 48.84%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.5 − 46.4 = 1.10
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 48.844 = 1.164
  3. Signed miss = 1.10 − (1.164) = -0.065
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.065| = 0.065

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71366, race ID 6249 (538 database).