Skip to content

2020 House · UT-4

RMG Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-14 (20 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 46%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.70% · Republican 47.70%

R+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.697 − 47.697 = -1.000
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-1.000) = -0.001
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.001| = 0.001

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71372, race ID 8235 (538 database).