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2020 President · WA

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2020-10-14 (20 days before the election) · 610 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 37%

D+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.97% · Republican 38.77%

D+19.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 37 = 23.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.970 − 38.767 = 19.203
  3. Signed miss = 23.00 − (19.203) = 3.797
  4. Absolute miss = |3.797| = 3.797

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71378, race ID 6258 (538 database).