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2020 Governor · WA

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2020-10-14 (20 days before the election) · 610 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 40%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.56% · Republican 43.12%

D+13.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 40 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.558 − 43.118 = 13.440
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (13.440) = 2.560
  4. Absolute miss = |2.560| = 2.560

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71378, race ID 8729 (538 database).