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2020 President · PA

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2020-10-16 (18 days before the election) · 653 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 48.84%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 48.844 = 1.164
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (1.164) = 2.835
  4. Absolute miss = |2.835| = 2.835

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71379, race ID 6249 (538 database).