2020 President · KY
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2020-10-14 (20 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 56%
R+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 36.15% · Republican 62.09%
R+25.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 56 = -17.00
- Actual margin = 36.152 − 62.087 = -25.935
- Signed miss = -17.00 − (-25.935) = 8.935
- Absolute miss = |8.935| = 8.935
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71443, race ID 6228 (538 database).