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2020 Governor · UT

RMG Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-14 (20 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 26% · Republican 50%

R+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 30.35% · Republican 62.98%

R+32.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 26 − 50 = -24.00
  2. Actual margin = 30.349 − 62.977 = -32.628
  3. Signed miss = -24.00 − (-32.628) = 8.628
  4. Absolute miss = |8.628| = 8.628

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71445, race ID 7825 (538 database).