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2020 President · OH

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2020-10-18 (16 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.24% · Republican 53.27%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.239 − 53.271 = -8.032
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-8.032) = 9.032
  4. Absolute miss = |9.032| = 9.032

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71450, race ID 6246 (538 database).