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2020 President · AZ

Data Orbital · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47.1% · Republican 41.9%

D+5.2

The certified result

Democrat 49.37% · Republican 49.06%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.1 − 41.9 = 5.20
  2. Actual margin = 49.365 − 49.056 = 0.309
  3. Signed miss = 5.20 − (0.309) = 4.891
  4. Absolute miss = |4.891| = 4.891

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71451, race ID 6214 (538 database).